College basketball best bets and projections

We split our men’s basketball bets, 1-1, yesterday, but had a profitable 2-1 day in women’s basketball to bring us to 249-201 overall on the season. There is a decent slate of games on Wednesday since some of the bigger conferences are tipping off the first round of their tournaments today, so I’ve got a couple of bets loaded in the chamber for you on the men’s side and hope to add a couple to the women’s card as well.

Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.

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Speaking of the conference tournaments, we’re previewing them all, so check out our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, March 13th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.

Men’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Alcorn StateAlabama A&M3.4144.6
ArkansasVanderbilt5.7142.3
Brigham YoungCentral Florida6.7141.3
ButlerXavier-0.8149.8
CaliforniaStanford-0.1149.1
ClemsonBoston College7.3145.5
ColgateLehigh6.9139.8
Colorado StateSan Jose State15.9139.8
DuquesneSaint Louis8.6144.0
FairfieldIona2.5146.2
George MasonSaint Joseph’s0.2139.7
GeorgiaMissouri5.2143.0
GramblingAlabama State1.5128.9
KansasCincinnati1.9140.4
Louisiana TechMiddle Tennessee14.1130.6
MarylandRutgers4.4123.9
McNeese StateNicholls State14.8139.4
MontanaMontana State5.2144.0
New MexicoAir Force17.7144.7
Norfolk StateCoppin State18.2131.2
North Carolina CentralMaryland-Eastern Shore10.1134.7
Penn StateMichigan4.9149.6
ProvidenceGeorgetown11.0143.0
QuinnipiacCanisius6.1145.7
Sam Houston StateFlorida International4.5147.7
St. BonaventureLa Salle6.2142.2
Stephen F. AustinAbilene Christian2.7143.2
SyracuseNC State-0.5148.3
TCUOklahoma0.6144.8
TempleUTSA3.5151.0
TexasKansas State4.8140.7
UC RiversideCal State Bakersfield-1.9134.0
UC Santa BarbaraCal State Northridge1.8145.8
UCLAOregon State4.3128.2
UtahArizona State9.3142.6
Utah ValleyCalifornia Baptist1.3127.7
VillanovaDePaul22.6137.1
Virginia CommonwealthFordham8.4137.4
Virginia TechFlorida State2.5147.2
Wake ForestNotre Dame10.4133.6
WashingtonSouthern California3.7152.1
Wichita StateRice3.5140.0
WyomingFresno State1.9141.4

Bets:

Arkansas/Vanderbilt Under 148.5

Fresno State +7.5

Women’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Abilene ChristianTarleton State8.9125.9
Ball StateOhio19.7130.8
BuffaloBowling Green State1.6130.9
East CarolinaRice0.7127.0
Eastern WashingtonNorthern Arizona6.3139.0
FairfieldRider26.6123.7
GramblingFlorida A&M10.0127.6
HamptonHofstra-5.7117.7
HowardMorgan State10.3117.4
Jackson StatePrairie View21.8125.7
Kent StateNorthern Illinois13.8129.2
LamarTexas A&M-Commerce13.4134.7
LibertyWestern Kentucky0.6128.1
Middle TennesseeUTEP22.5128.7
Nevada-Las VegasSan Diego State17.3135.8
NiagaraQuinnipiac6.6136.4
Norfolk StateSouth Carolina State33.1115.8
NortheasternUNC Wilmington10.1122.8
Texas A&M-Corpus ChristiSoutheastern Louisiana1.0118.9
ToledoWestern Michigan17.9125.9
UC DavisCal State Fullerton4.5122.3
UC Santa BarbaraLong Beach State3.7134.4
UT ArlingtonSouthern Utah6.7138.0